Congress Essential For INDIA Bloc To Halt The BJP Juggernaut

Congress should develop strategies to counter BJP in States like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan as well as Chhattisgarh and in other places where it is in direct contest with the saffron party. In the places and States where it’s weak, it should be ready to play second fiddle. It should also stop wasting its precious energies on caste census and its decade-long campaign against billionaire Gautam Adani, which failed to give any political dividends

In mathematics, one plus one is equal to two. But that equation doesn't hold good in politics. If a political party joins hands with another party, the alliance's strength will never be equal to the sum of the individual strengths of the two political parties. It will invariably be less than the overall sum. In mathematics, one minus one is equal to zero. Even this equation does not hold good in politics. If two political alliance partners opt for a divorce, their individual strengths will never be equal to the individual strengths they have enjoyed before the partnership. One of the two political parties will get stronger while the second one gets weaker.

But which one gets stronger? The political party, which comes up with the most workable strategies, has a longtime vision and commands a strong cadre base, will get stronger during the alliance period and post the divorce too.

If we keenly observe Indian politics post the coalition era that began in 1989, we can clearly understand this political phenomenon.

Five years prior to that, the Indian National Congress (Indira) led by a young Rajiv Gandhi registered a stupendous victory, winning 404 out of 514 Lok Sabha seats in 1984. This massive victory for Congress came as polls were held immediately after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the iron lady of India and Rajiv’s mother. The sympathy factor was very much on show.

However, Rajiv’s honeymoon with Indian voters did not last long as the Bofors scandal, allegations of Muslim appeasement and other issues took a big toll. Rajiv tried his level best to revive the fortunes of Congress (I). But the party, which subsequently removed ‘Indira’ from its name, lost power in 1989 as its tally in Lok Sabha nosedived to 197 seats. However, the key political takeaway from that poll was the emergence of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which saw its tally zooming from two seats in 1984 to 85 in 1989.

Even more importantly, right-wing BJP and left-wing CPI (M)-led Left Front went onboard the N.T. Rama Rao-led National Front to defeat Congress! Thereafter, BJP benefited from its every poll alliance and in 2014, reached the political pinnacle that was the sole preserve of Congress for over 40 years before 1989. During the same period, Congress lost ground due to the alliances it struck with other political parties across the country.

Now, let’s focus on the upcoming elections to the Delhi Assembly, which are scheduled for February 5. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been ruling Delhi since December 2013 barring a short period of President’s rule. AAP came to power, dislodging Congress and won three times in a row in the State.

The Congress, which was also in power for three consecutive terms before that, had notched up just eight out of 70 seats in Delhi Assembly in 2013. As both AAP (28 seats) and BJP (32 seats) fell short of the majority (36 out of 70 seats), Congress supported the AAP government, which only lasted for a couple of months.

In the subsequent two Assembly polls in 2015 and 2020, AAP secured massive victories while the BJP was a distant second. Sadly, Congress drew a blank in both elections. In 2022, AAP expanded its presence to Punjab and unseated the ruling Congress.

In an interesting turn of events, Congress, AAP and other regional parties came together and formed the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in July 2023 to defeat the Narendra Modi-ledNDA government in the 2024 General Elections. AAP and Congress contested Lok Sabha polls in Delhi in alliance and parted ways in Punjab! Like in 2014 and 2019, AAP and Congress drew a blank in Delhi Lok Sabha polls in 2024 despite the alliance while BJP made a clean sweep of all seven seats for the third time in a row. Though INDIA bloc did considerably well in the recent Lok Sabha polls by winning 238 seats with Congress leading the list with 99 seats, and restricting BJP tally to 240 seats, it could not prevent BJP from forming the government at the Centre for the third consecutive term.

Many expected the INDIA bloc to continue the momentum post the polls. But that did not happen as Congress refused to give seats to AAP in the subsequent Haryana Assembly elections in which BJP won hands down for a third consecutive term. Also, in the Maharashtra Assembly polls that followed, the Congress-led alliance fared poorly against BJP-led one.

For the Delhi Assembly polls, AAP and Congress parted ways! This development will obviously benefit BJP as AAP seems to be facing severe anti-incumbency after being in power for more than 10 years.

Corruption allegations against AAP founder Arvind Kejriwal in the liquor policy case for which he was arrested, also damaged the party’s prospects as many Delhiites believe that he and Sisodia were involved in the scam. On its part, Congress is most likely to perform poorly as it may not be to able convince voters why it had an alliance with AAP for Lok Sabha polls, but not for Assembly polls. Furthermore, most members of the INDIA bloc threw their weight behind AAP, not Congress.

These developments have not only put big question mark over the future of the INDIA bloc, but also revealed that Congress is yet to master the art of coalition politics despite running three coalition governments at the Centre. Had it learnt the right lessons, it would have remained a junior partner to AAP and allowed the latter to take on BJP in Delhi in the larger interest of the INDIA bloc. Moreover, it would have given a couple of seats to AAP in the Haryana polls.

The fact of the matter here is that Congress doesn’t have the wherewithal to dislodge the saffron party at Centre on its own even in 2029. And, its presence is essential for the INDIA bloc to effectively take on the saffron party. All the constituents of INDIA bloc should realise these two key political truths and act accordingly.

Furthermore, the Congress should evolve strategies to counter BJP in States like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and in other places where it is in direct contest with the saffron party.

In States where it’s weak, it should be ready to play second fiddle.

It should also stop wasting its precious energies on caste census and its decade-long campaign against billionaire Gautam Adani, which failed to yield any political dividends. Only then can the INDIA bloc stop the BJP’s juggernaut. Otherwise, it will be another cakewalk for the BJP-led alliance in 2029. That’s for sure.